How we grade
Every published pick is settled against the closing line and the official box score — win, lose, or push. Nothing is deleted, re-graded, or quietly dropped.
1 · PICK
Model publishes
Pick + the line and odds at publish time, timestamped.
2 · CLOSE
Market closes
We record the closing line — the market’s final answer.
3 · RESULT
Game settles
Official stats grade the pick. Postponed = void, stated.
4 · GRADE
Public forever
W / L / push joins the running record. No edits.
Worked example — graded 2026-09-04
Hao-Yu Lee – DET Under 0.5 RBIs-220→result: 0 RBIs→WCLV +7.1%ⓘClosing Line ValueOn this pick our published price beat the market’s final price by +7.1%. The close is the sharpest number in the market — beating it consistently is the strongest evidence a model is real.Positive = the market moved toward our picks after we published.
Model notes
Before 2026-07-28, game-line and F5 prices did not account for the ballpark. Fixed and validated 2026-07.
Green and red mean one thing here: graded facts. We say “last 10” is history, never prediction. When none of our models beats the closing line on a market, we say that too — the null is part of the record.